David Evans, is the Head of Agriculture for Wm Morrison
Supermarket in the UK and the author of a study study to provide food to people
in every society across the planet and provide continuous access to food. He
explains that the solutions will be as much global as they will be local.
The FAO’s definition of food security is one in which “all
people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life”, he has illustrated the challenges of achieving food security
for the United Nations’ median estimate for the human population of nine
billion in 2050 and 10.5 billion by 2100. The situation is made more
challenging by the fact that the growth is not evenly spread across all
countries; while little expansion or even contraction is expected in developed
countries, the highest rates of growth are forecast in countries such as
Nigeria and India. Furthermore, there is a strong trend of movement from rural
areas to the cities, Evans said, so that, by 2050, 70 per cent of the global
population will live in urban areas – where infra-structure, the provision of
services and adequate earnings are by no means guaranteed.
A megacity, as defined by the United Nations, has a
population of 10 million or more people. In 1990, there were just 10 of these
conurbations in the world, rising to 28 in 2014 and there are forecast to be 41
such habitations by 2050, many of them in west Africa, south Asia and
south-east China. So the areas of the planet that will require food to be
delivered and those where food is produced are likely to diverge even further
than they are today. As the urban areas spread, it will become increasingly
difficult to supply the megacity’s population with food from local sources. And
the quantities of food calculated by Evans to be required by an Asian megacity
of 20 million people, for example, are mind-blowing. Assuming an average daily
consumption of 2.5kg of food per person, 50,000 tonnes or 3,300 fully loaded
articulated trucks would have to enter the city every single day. And while
much of the chicken and pork requirements could be produced locally, 25,000
tonnes of feed would require transportation into the area every week to support
this production, he estimates.
Food systems and food supply systems will need to change
radically to meet these needs, Evans contends. A simple food supply chain
begins with primary production (for example, on the farm) and may go through a
number of stages of primary, secondary and tertiary processing before
distribution and finally, delivery to the consumer outlet, be that a local
street market or supermarket. Food systems, on the other hand, cover the
internal and external factors that influence the delivery of food to the
population, and include such diverse elements as employment, food safety, land
ownership, ethics and environment – in other words, all those factors meeting
the needs of society generally.
A new era of food production needs to start with making
basic nutrition available to all, say 2,700 kcal per day for 10 billion people.
Making the food system sustainable will mean considering then food safety and
nutrition, food supply and economic viability and finally, the responsible use
of the planet’s resources. For the food supply chain, it means the application
of co-operative economics, by which the individual parts of the supply chain
interact with one another to optimise efficiency. Examples of co-operative
economics include group purchasing of inputs, shared skilled human resource
functions, shared equipment and facilities and group marketing of outputs. All
this points to the need for large-scale efficient food systems – a concept
known as sustainable intensification – that is the most likely solution to our
future food supply, Evans said, adding that key focus for future innovations in
the food systems will need to be on addressing concerns regarding the
protection of the environment and scarce resources as well as the ethics around
food production.
http://www.thefishsite.com/fishnews/25833/future-food-security-requires-a-new-food-system/
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